Market Insight: Potential DRAM Price Surge in Q1 2024 (TrendForce Analysis)

The latest report from TrendForce projects an upward trend in the DRAM market for the first quarter of 2024 predicting a substantial 13-18% increase to accommodate the accelerating adoption of next-generation DDR5 technology. 

Unfilled orders for DDR5 are creating a ripple effect, pushing up prices for DDR4 as well. As industry players ramp up production to meet the burgeoning demand for DDR5, contract prices are expected to climb by 10-15%. 

The Mobile DRAM segment, which caters to smartphones and other portable devices, is also projected to witness a price hike of 18-23%, fueled by similar demand growth and supply constraints. Server DRAM, on the other hand, is anticipated to experience a more moderate 10-15% increase.  

With no imminent signs of price drops, TrendForce emphasizes the need to monitor whether the sales energy of end-user electronic products can match the upward pace in this niche market. 

Manufacturers are aggressively raising contract prices in the consumer DRAM sector, prompting early stockpiling by buyers. Despite the industry's off-season in the first quarter, manufacturers anticipate weak end sales and increased inventory levels due to early stocking strategies. With the expanding penetration of HBM and DDR5, low-margin DDR4 capacity is expected to be crowded out, leading to a 10–15% increase in DDR4 contract prices, outpacing DDR3 in 1Q24. 

The DRAM market in 1Q24 is characterized by significant price surges across various segments, driven by factors such as increased demand, strategic production adjustments, and technological transitions. As manufacturers navigate uncertainties in the market, buyers are likely to witness notable increases in contract prices, especially in the mobile and PC DRAM sectors. Keeping a keen eye on these trends will be crucial for stakeholders in the dynamic DRAM industry.